Thursday, January 31, 2008

Jobs Number Hits Futures, Consumer Cos.Talk Price Hikes - Trader Talk with Bob Pisani - CNBC.com

Jobs Number Hits Futures - Trader Talk with Bob Pisani - CNBC.com

Futures dropped at 8:30 ET because jobless claims numbers higher than expected have somewhat hopes that the nonfarm payrolls report tomorrow will be stronger than expected.

There are two noteworthy trends from companies announcing earnings:

1) Once again, consumer companies have talked about higher costs and price increases. Today it was Colgate and Proctor & Gamble.

2) Both Ann Taylor

AnnTaylor Stores Corp
ANN

22.83 UNCH 0%
NYSE




[ANN 22.83 --- UNCH (0%) ] and Starbucks [SBUX 19.22 --- UNCH (0%) ] have talked this morning about limiting store growth in response to the slower economy. Starbucks CEO Howard Schultz said "the consumer is in a recession."

On earnings:

1) Colgate

Colgate-Palmolive Co
CL

73.5 UNCH 0%
NYSE




[CL 73.5 --- UNCH (0%) ] beat, and announced a repurchase of 30 m shares. Note that Colgate generates less than 20 percent of its sales in North America. Their global market shares of key products like toothpaste, soap, and toothbrushes are all at record highs.

2) P&G

Procter & Gamble Co
PG

65.09 UNCH 0%
NYSE




[PG 65.09 --- UNCH (0%) ] beat by a penny and confirmed they were splitting off their Folgers business. Their guidance for the current quarter is just a tad below analyst expectations.

3) Like Centex

Centex Corp
CTX

26.4 UNCH 0%
NYSE




[CTX 26.4 --- UNCH (0%) ], Pulte Homes [PHM 13.57 --- UNCH (0%) ] recorded a huge loss of $3.54, much greater than the loss of $0.76 expected. Like Centex, the bigger than expected mix was related to land-related impairment charges. Their guidance for the quarter is a loss of $0.15 to a loss of $0.30, analyst estimate is loss of $0.33.

4) What's up with the oil service stocks? First, Smith International

SLL

Unavailable %




[SLL Unavailable (%) ], then Baker Hughes[BHI 67.27 --- UNCH (0%) ] , now Cooper Cameron [CAM 43.06 --- UNCH (0%) ] is getting hammered on disappointing guidance. Down 7 percent pre-open.

Street estimates seem overly optimistic.

5) Aerospace giant Goodrich

Goodrich Corp
GR

62.84 UNCH 0%
NYSE




[GR 62.84 --- UNCH (0%) ] beat and talked about "steady growth" in aerospace, and reaffirmed 2008 guidance of $4.15-$4.30, though that is below analyst expectations of $4.33 (Reuters). They also note that Boeing's delay in the 787 would not have a material impact on earnings in 2008 or 2009.

6) Buried in the William Ackman letter so critical of Ambac

AMBAC Financial Group Inc
ABK

10.85 UNCH 0%
NYSE




[ABK 10.85 --- UNCH (0%) ] and MBIA [MBI 13.96 --- UNCH (0%) ] was an interesting argument for eliminating the purpose of the bond insurers altogether, that is, to try to create what he calls "Open Source Research" where "all market participants can have equal access to the primary source data and construct their own views of losses without reliance on the analytical judgment of rating agencies or the bond insurance industry."

European banks like UBS

UBS AG
UBS

42.26 UNCH 0%
NYSE




[UBS 42.26 --- UNCH (0%) ] , Deutsche Bank [DB 114.56 --- UNCH (0%) ] , and AXA [AXA 34.57 --- UNCH (0%) ] are all weak today.



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