The Two Things Helping The Market

Two things helping the market today...the economic data and the calendar.

We got better data today on China manufacturing and on the U.S. ISM...that's a big help.

But the other factor is the calendar. Why? It's a New Year! You gotta put the money to work, you can't coast anymore.

Remember November-December? Talk about coasting! A lot of traders got out of the risk trade then, and the dollar rose, but it's time to end that. A new calendar means you've got to put that money to work.

Going back to buying commodities on a global growth story is the easy trade, and t hat is exactly what is being done today.

What's missing? Volume--it's anemic. But the action is definitely to the buyside...what action there is, is clearing coming from bidders.

The wildcard is the dollar...strong employment data Friday may well bring dollar strength...but a lot of traders are not afraid of that...the market showed in December that it can go up when the dollar goes up.

What stocks can stand when the dollar stabilizes or moves up? A lot, if the U.S. economic picture improves.

Elsewhere:

We've noted this strange dichotomy earlier: analysts are busy upgrading sectors like chemicals (Goldman Sachs) or refiners (Deutsche Bank) this morning, while economists meeting in Atlanta for the American Economic Association seem to be extremely pessimistic.

Look at Paul Kr ugman's comments in Atlanta:

1) he sees need for more stimulus because the current stimulus effect will fade at midyear, 2) unemployment likely to increase, 3) housing prices could drop another 5-10%, and 4) he sees a 30-40 percent chance of a double dip recession.

Cheerful!

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New Upgrade Fuels Refining Sector

Deutsche Bank upgraded the entire refining sector and raised price targets in a long piece entitled, "Oil has a future-so do refineries."

The argument:

1) demand improving, helped by cold weather, though still weak;

2) inventory overhang being worked off due to refinery shutdowns, with utilization low in those that are operating;

3) oil prices will FALL in 2010 to $65 a barrel, which will improve margins for gasoline refiners.

DB energy analyst Paul Sankey does hedge his bets: "Our biggest concern in 2010 is a major terrorist attack. Post-911 impact suggests that this will be very negative fo r oil demand, and refiners."

Tesoro [TSO  Loading...      ()   ] up 7 percent, Sunoco [SUN  Loading...      ()   ] up 5 percent, Valero [VLO  Loading...      ()   ] up 5 percent.

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Indications: U.S. stock futures point to strong 2010 debut

Alert Email Print

By Steve Goldstein, MarketWatch

Fixes name of ISM provider.

LONDON (MarketWatch) -- U.S. stock futures Monday pointed to a strong debut to 2010 as the Federal Reserve's top two officials hinted that interest rates would stay at ultra-low levels for months to come.

After a year that saw the Dow Jones Industrial Average climb 19% on a recovery in the economy and a stabilization of the financial sector, futures on the Dow industrials rose 54 points.

S&P 500 futures rose 7 points to 1,117.70 and Nasdaq 100 futures rose 21.75 points to 1,880.50.

The gains came as Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said in a speech Sunday that regulatory and supervisory policies, rather than monetary policy, were to blame for a rapid increase in U.S. house prices in the early parts of last decade, and Fed Vice Chairman Donald Kohn said that tightening policy to head off perceived threats from asset price increases "could be expensive."

"While we disagree with much of the content of the speeches, these comments should reiterate (yet again) that the Fed will not seek to tighten policy until economic slack is, or looks likely to be, significantly reduced and/or inflation expectations pickup," said a research note from RDQ Economics.

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Overseas, China's manufacturing activity accelerated in December at its fastest pace in several years, according to data compiled by two competing industrial surveys. A similar gauge for Britain showed the quickest expansion in 25 months.

The Institute for Supply Management's December manufacturing index is due at 10 a.m. Eastern time, and is expected to show an increase to 54% from 53.6%, according to economists polled by MarketWatch. Construction spending data also are due for release.

Alcon /quotes/comstock/13*!acl/quotes/nls/acl (ACL 164.35, 0.00, 0.00%) may be active as Novartis /quotes/comstock/13*!nvs/quotes/nls/nvs (NVS 54.43, 0.00, 0.00%) offered to buy out minority holders of the eye-care firm for $11.2 billion -- at $153 a share, a 7% discount to Thursday's close. Novartis separately exercised an option to buy Nestle's remaining 52% stake for $28.1 billion.

Alcon rose 3% to $169.50 on hopes for a better Novartis offer.

Chesapeake Energy /quotes/comstock/13*!chk/quotes/nls/chk (CHK 25.88, 0.00, 0.00%) rose 4.9% after it inked a $2.25 billion pact with Total /quotes/comstock/13*!tot/quotes/nls/tot (TOT 64.04, 0.00, 0.00%) to sell a 25% stake in Barnett shale gas assets.

Kraft Foods /quotes/comstock/13*!kft/quotes/nls/kft (KFT 27.18, 0.00, 0.00%) may be in the spotlight after two newspaper reports said it would increase its hostile offer for Cadbury /quotes/comstock/13*!cby/quotes/nls/cby (CBY 51.39, 0.00, 0.00%) , and an Italian newspaper said Ferrero has met with private-equity firms and Hershey /quotes/comstock/13*!hsy/quotes/nls/hsy (HSY 35.79, 0.00, 0.00%) about jointly launching a counter-offer.

The media sector may be in the spotlight after News Corp.'s /quotes/comstock/15*!nws/quotes/nls/nws (NWS 15.92, 0.00, 0.00%) Fox Network and Time Warner Cable /quotes/comstock/13*!twc/quotes/nls/twc (TWC 41.39, 0.00, 0.00%) reached a deal to keep the Fox broadcast network on the air over the Time Warner network. News Corp. also owns MarketWatch, the publisher of this report.

Wal-Mart Stores /quotes/comstock/13*!wmt/quotes/nls/wmt (WMT 53.45, 0.00, 0.00%) plans to cut costs by combining purchasing for several countries, according to a Financial Times report citing the head of Wal-Mart's U.S. stores, Eduardo Castro-Wright.

Commodity futures were strong, with oil futures climbing to around the $81-a-barrel mark and gold futures rising by $21 an ounce.

The dollar index fell 0.5%, while stocks in Europe and Asia rose, with the Nikkei 225 climbing 1% in Tokyo and the FTSE 100 up 0.7% in London.

Steve Goldstein is MarketWatch's London bureau chief.

NYSE Arca Morning Update - 08:30:00 ET

NYSE Arca Morning Update for Monday, Jan 4, 2010 :

STOCKS TRADING ON NYSE Arca AT A PRICE 15% OR MORE AWAY FROM
THE PREVIOUS TRADE DAY'S CONSOLIDATED CLOSE PRICE (AS OF 08:30:00 ET)

Stock Thursday's Close Current Price Pct Change Current NYSE ARCA Vol
BFRM $3.40 $5.46 60.6% 663,684
NIV $2.60 $3.68 41.5% 7,060

10 MOST ACTIVE STOCKS ON NYSE ARCA AS OF 08:30:00 ET

BASED ON DOLLARS TRADED: | BASED ON SHARES TRADED:
Stock $ Volume Price PctChg | Stock Share Vol Price PctChg
SPY $103831768 $112.15 0.6% | C 2,173,918 $3.36 1.2%
GLD $50,055,409 $109.44 2.0% | SPY 925,770 $112.15 0.6%
AAPL $12,429,608 $212.52 0.8% | BFRM 663,684 $5.46 60.6%
QQQQ $12,393,091 $46.18 0.9% | ANX 491,657 $0.42 20.3%
C $7,294,012 $3.36 1.2% | GLD 457,790 $109.44 2.0%
BAC $6,296,334 $15.20 0.7% | BAC 414,269 $15.20 0.7%
ACL $5,941,249 $164.56 ( 0.2%) | UNG 346,033 $10.54 4.3%
XOM $3,913,625 $68.63 0.7% | QQQQ 268,299 $46.18 0.9%
UNG $3,643,803 $10.54 4.3% | YRCW 215,049 $0.86 2.4%
BFRM $3,615,025 $5.46 60.6% | SIRI 143,450 $0.61 2.0%

Price changes may be affected by symbol splits and dividends.

Consolidated close price is the last print (excluding prints with trade
conditions) prior to 4PM ET.

This information is also updated on our web page every morning at 8:35ET:
http://www.tradearca.com/data/volume/daily_update.asp

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