MarketWatch.com - Pre-Market Indications

Wednesday, March 31, 2010

Failed Banks and Failed Billions

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Bubbles have a hard time coming to an end, especially in residential real estate. Underlying forces such as government intervention to prolong the agony and the abject stupidity of builders extends the bubbles. We are in a vast home inventory expansion and builders are going to build 535,000 new homes. The projected foreclosure rate could give us as much as a 3-year home inventory, up from present levels of about a year, if one includes the lenders shadow inventory. This past week the home building index rose 7.1% and it is up 25.1% year-to-date. The retail index rose 17% y-t-d, yet unemployment stubbornly clings to 22-1/8%. In fact, the retail index is up 87.4% y-o-y. We would say that index is grossly overpriced. As you can see bubbles have a way of not wanting to die quickly. This is caused by man’s disparately wanting to cling to the past attempting to take the easy way out rather than adapting to change. Government tries to keep sections of the economy alive rather than letting the cleansing process take its course. The subsidization of the housing market is doomed to failure, because there simply isn’t enough money and credit available to keep it going indefinitely. All government is doing is re-flating a dying bubble. These Socialistic/Marxist policies just won’t work. Whether government likes it or not interest rates are headed higher, probably by 1% or more by the end of the year as government in its quest for more money to cover its debts crowds most others out of the market. This can be accommodated by the Fed, but not without higher inflation or perhaps hyperinflation, which in turn will drive interest rates even higher. We are seeing the reigniting of speculative mania in other markets as well â€" in the stock market and particularly in the low quality sector of the bond market worldwide. The mis-pricing of investments and finance is resulting in terrible distortions, mostly the result of Fed and go vernment policy.

This mania has been aided and abetted by US dollar strength, especially over the past two months. We saw JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs and Citigroup and others loading up on the long side of the dollar starting last October between USDX 74 and 78. They obviously knew the Greece episode was on the way. Irrespective, and in spite of no positive fundamentals, dollar strength was used to draw funds into dollar denominated assets. Supposedly the dollar has some sort of competitive advantage, which it doesn’t, and that a strong dollar will be re-flationary, which it has been. Gold and silver should have been flying to the upside, but our government detests free markets and it again temporarily suppressed prices. This is the result of the machinations of Larry Summers and Tim Geither. Dollar strength has the perceived benefit of the Fed’s ability to endlessly create money and credit.

It is this perception added to Greece, European and euro problems that have fueled speculation in world markets. Perceptions are one thing, and fundamentals are another more powerful force, which in time will reassert themselves. Problems will first be evident in the bond markets, which have already begun. As soon as the 10-year T-note solidly crosses 4% the market, the dollar and bonds will falter. The current strength is perceived to be the weakness of other currencies and their economies, prospective re-flationary policies and the concept of too big to fail. This is why there is the concept that the current “recovery” will persist. They also recognize that individual euro zone countries cannot inflate their way out of problems. One currency prohibits that from happening. This means Greece and others cannot monetize their debt and that means any kind of recovery is years away. All 19 near bankrupt countries are in the same boat except the US. Markets believe in the Bernanke put or backstop. They also belie ve the Fed will reinflate again. They would rather have inflation or hyperinflation, which they can in part control, rather than deflation, which once it begins cannot be contained.

Then enters the question will the Fed deliberately choose deflation in a year or two to bring about world government? Is this what Greece was all about? We do not know for sure. All we can do is guess. Do not forget Europe’s problems are not as bad as those of the US even though they are led to believe they are.

The 10-year Treasury note may well be telling us something and that is that higher rates are on the way. It certainly doesn’t auger well for any recovery. If credit spreads widen watch out. Such a development would mean the dollar would begin to retrace its recent gains. Dollar gains are over at 82 on the USDX. We await its correction.

We have spent more than 70 years as Americans and we gasp at the criminal enterprise that A merica has become. Lawbreaking has become as casual as running a business, whether it is on Wall Street or within the beltway in Washington. Worse yet, almost all malefactors never see the inside of a jail, they just have their corporations pay fines and go back to doing what they were doing, which was breaking the law.

One of the ultimate insults comes from the FDIC requesting donations. 200 to 500 banks will fail this year because of incompetence and terrible investments. We believe, as the year progresses, bank failures will explode. One of the factors leading us to this conclusion is that more than 1,000 banks have professionals overseeing bank operations from the Comptroller of the Currency’s Office. Worse yet, we are seeing many banks and credit unions telling depositors they may have to wait seven days or more for their money. Can bank holidays be far behind? We believe it will happen over the next couple of years.

As we go fo rward we continue to see massive Treasury purchases by the Fed. The monetization is spellbinding at somewhere between 50 and 80 percent. The more we look at this cartoon the more we know quantitative easing cannot stop. If it does the system will collapse. The Fed and the FDIC even want pension funds to buy their toxic garbage, as does Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. What a sordid turn of events, but not unexpected considering what we are dealing with.

Unemployment sticks at 22-1/8% as tax revenues continue to plunge as the budget deficit heads toward Mars. The next administration push will be to legalize illegal aliens. You ask where will this all end? Can you believe builders have been buying CDOs? Lennar has plunged in and Orleans fell into insolvency with 20% of their assets in toxic garbage.

There is no question zero interest rates, unbridled government deficits, stimulus plans and the Fed’s quantitative easing have been a failure. The result normally would be to pump more aggregates into the system. We will have to see what the Fed, Congress and the administration do, especially between now and the election. Is it any wonder we have called for a two-third’s official dollar devaluation and a debt default. Be patient we should see them happen within two years. Maybe we will get lucky and get tariffs on goods and services. That way we can bring most of our jobs back and get a healthy economy back with 5% unemployment. Many credit derivatives will be banned as well. We have been involved in markets for 50 years and we know sooner or later those who are leveraged â€" or on margin â€" lose sooner or later. As a broker we never had margin accounts. The halt in the downward fall of economics, finance and stock market prices are but an interlude. There are still no solutions, so the downside will begin anew. One thing that has come out of the foregoing and the recent troubles in Greece and with the euro is t hat gold has been recognized as money, as a currency. That view is going to grow as gold trades higher and higher. As an example, just look at the value of gold in euros and all other currencies. Gold has consolidated time after time at $1,050 to $1,100 no matter what the US government threw at the gold market. There have been a few exceptions to gold’s strength, but over time all currencies will fall against the only real money. On the short-term do not forget the government is very short gold and silver on the Comex, probably the LBMA and most certainly in the producer shares. This week’s numbers will give us an indication whether they have begun to cover. We are going to also see a resumption of inflation officially in the next CPI figures. Real inflation is again approaching 8% and this inflation will be reflected in gold and silver prices. Not all professionals are dumb enough to believe official figures. On the downside we do not believe $1,050 to $1,100 will ever be broken again. Your gains when they come will be quick and large.

Now that most of the evidence is in, it is apparent that Lehman Brothers management created a colossal fraud even bigger than that of Enron with its Repo 105 maneuvers and was assisted by its accounting firm of Ernst & Young, and by the NY fed under the direction of our current Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner. Geithner and all the top management and directors of Lehman should be charged criminally, but all being Illuminati members no one has been charged. Do not expect much from the Department of Justice. Eric Holder was the official who wrote the pardon letter for March Rich, tax cheat and Mossad operative for the State of Israel. As you can see Holder is where he is today because of his enablement of criminal activity. It shows you again that Wall Street, banking and Washington are nothing more than a criminal cartel. The question now is who else on Wall Street is doing the same thing? We already know they keep two sets of books, which is sanctioned by the BIS, the FASB and your government. What is really going on at these Illuminist firms, besides that they tell us they are doing God’s work.

As this criminal activity unfolds the Chairman of the Federal Reserve Ben Bernanke wants more regulatory authority for the Fed so the Fed can better cover up criminal activities. He says the Fed is unequally suited to supervise large, complex financial organizations and to address both safety and soundness risks and risks in the stability of the financial system as a whole. This is the ringleader talking. This is the nexus, the core, the leader of criminal activity in America grasping for even more power. This is the same group under Greenspan and then Bernanke that created the stock market bubble of the late 1990s, the housing, mortgage, commercial real estate bubble, the bubble that took the Dow to 14,100 and then from 6,500 to 10,900, the toxic garbage bubble and the bubble on Wall Street and in banking. These are the people who lost Americans trillions of dollars so they could implement world government. All this just didn’t happen; it was planned that way. Yes, they are unequally suited to the creation and transmission of criminal activity. This is the same Fed that spent two years in Lehman’s offices and found nothing, because they aided and abetted their criminal activity. They knew everything that was going on. They were trying to bail Lehman out and it did not work. The SEC was there with them, shoulder to shoulder, covering up the crime scene. They are all liars and thieves, not incompetents. We then wonder how deep and serious the fraud is at other firms. From what we have seen so far we haven’t even scratched the surface. We want to see all these facilitators in jail. We do not want to see the Fed with more power. We want to see the Fed out of business as well as the end of the SEC and CFTC . As you can see our government and Wall Street are totally corrupt and unless we do something about it they will destroy our country.


President Obama's fiscal 2011 budget will generate nearly $10 trillion in cumulative budget deficits over the next 10 years, $1.2 trillion more than the administration projected, and raise the federal debt to 90 percent of the nation's economic output by 2020, the Congressional Budget Office reported Thursday.

John Williams: Gross Domestic Income (GDI) Revisions Show Vanishing Recovery? The GDI suggests the third-quarter "recovery" in GDP never took place. As discussed in the sidebar, the GDP and the GDI are supposed to equal each other, with the GDP representing the consumption side of the economy, and the GDI representing the income side of the economy. The GDP always is the headline number and gets the heaviest attention from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) in terms o f a targeted, market-friendly growth rate. Ask the BEA as to why they publish the first estimate and subsequent revisions of GDI with a one-month lag to the GDP (a two-month lag for the fourth-quarter number), and the answer is tied to the lack of having reliable underlying data (they don’t have it in the early GDP reporting either)

The third-quarter GDI was revised from a real, annualized quarterly growth rate of 2.2% to a contraction of 0.4%. The economic "recovery" touted for the third-quarter GDP disappeared, as measured by the GDI… The just-reported 6.2% annualized GDI fourth-quarter growth is likely to revise lower in the months ahead (monthly fourth-quarter GDP revisions now are cut off), as better-quality information becomes available.

As discussed in the opening comments of this section, third-quarter GDI growth was revised to a 0.37% contraction from 2.22% positive growth. Year-to-year, fourth-quarter 2009 GDI was stil l in negative territory, down by 0.61% versus a revised 3.92% (previously 3.30%) annual contraction in the third quarter. For the full year 2009, GDI fell by 3.19% in 2009 versus a 0.37% decline in 2008 (GDP fell 2.44% in 2009 versus a gain of 0.44% in 2008).


The U.S. and European governments are moving toward a consensus on taxing large banks to cover the cost of any future bailouts rather than asking taxpayers to foot the bill, as happened regularly in past banking crises.

The tax proposals vary. Germany and Sweden would use the money to fund a "resolution authority" that would use the money to shut troubled banks whose failure would put the broader economy at risk. Others, such as France, would assess the fee after a crisis passed.

Personal Income (MoM) decreases to 0% in Feb from 0.3%

Consumer spending in the U.S. rose in February for a fifth consecutive month, a rebound that will require gains in employment to be sustained.

The 0.3 percent increase in purchases matched the median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News and followed a 0.4 percent advance in January, Commerce Department figures showed today in Washington. Incomes were unchanged, falling short of expectations as winter storms hurt hiring and hours worked.

For the first time in decades, the rich showed no confidence in state and local governments during a recession.

The wave of selling began in the summer of 2007, when hedge funds and some mutual funds were forced to raise cash to meet redemptions. Municipal bonds retained the most value, and the rich didn’t hesitate to sell.

Such selling accelerated in 2008, as the subprime meltdown claimed securities firms Bear Stearns Cos., sold at a fire sale, and Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., which was forced to declare bankruptcy . The Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged to 7,449 from 13,364 at the start of the year. Real estate prices collapsed. Municipals went begging. Tax-exempt yields, normally around 90 percent of Treasuries, surged to more than 200 percent. Issuers canceled bond sales.

The rich did the unthinkable. They sold municipal bonds. Fear of a second Great Depression and the crackup of capitalism trumped the allure of tax-exempt income and a historical default rate of less than 1 percent. U.S. Treasury notes and insured certificates of deposit became the new investments of choice for those with the most to lose.

This astonishing tale is told in the new edition of the Internal Revenue Service’s Statistics of Income Bulletin, which shows that in 2008, the latest year for which preliminary data is available, the richest taxpayers collected $7 billion less in tax-free interest than they did in 2007, an unprecedented drop of 15 percent.

Consumers in the U.S. gained confidence in March as the gloom over job prospects began to lift, indicating employment will be central to preserving the recent acceleration in spending.

The Conference Board’s confidence index rose to 52.5, exceeding the median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News, from 46.4 in February, according to figures today from the New York research group. Home prices unexpectedly rose in January for an eighth month, data also showed.

Home prices in 20 U.S. cities unexpectedly rose in January, indicating the housing market is stabilizing as the economy expands.

The S&P/Case-Shiller home-price index climbed 0.3 percent from the prior month on a seasonally adjusted basis, matching the gain in December, the group said today in New York. The gauge was down 0.7 percent from January 2009, the smallest year- over-year decrease in three years.

Cheaper homes, low borrowing costs and government incentives have combined to support the housing market, which helped trigger the worst recession since the 1930s. Gains in hiring are required to overcome mounting foreclosures that are keeping pressure on prices and posing a threat of renewed declines in real estate.

Regulators shut down two Georgia banks Friday, along with one each in Florida and Arizona. The failures lift this year's tally of failed U.S. banking institutions to 41.

The failed banks had combined total assets of $1.24 billion. The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. acted as receiver and, after finding buyers for the four banks, estimated the total cost to the deposit insurance fund would be $320.3 million.



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Indications: U.S. stock futures deeper in red after ADP report

Stock Assault 2.0 - Artificial Intelligence Stock Market Software Alert Email Print

By Steve Goldstein, MarketWatch

LONDON (MarketWatch) -- U.S. stock futures declined Wednesday after a surprise report showing private-sector employment dropped during March.

S&P 500 futures fell 3.9 points to 1,165.50 and Nasdaq 100 futures fell 5 points to 1,960.50. Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 28 points.

The dollar /quotes/comstock/11j!i:dxy0 (DXY 81.03, -0.44, -0.54%) also extended losses after ADP said 23,000 private-sector jobs were lost during March, surprising economists who expected a 40,000 rise.

"The March employment decline was the smallest since employment began falling in February of 2008. Yet, the lack of improvement in employment from February to March is consistent with the pause in the decline of initial unemployment claims that occurred during the winter," said Joel Prakken, chairman of Macroeconomic Advisers LLP.

TODAY'S INTERNATIONAL MARKET STORIES

Global Dow

• MarketWatch Topics: Greece • Asia Markets | Europe Markets | LatAm Markets • Canadian Markets | Israel Stocks | London • U.S.: Market Snapshot | After Hours

Tools• Latin American/Canadian indexes • European indexes | Asian indexes

More on the Markets • Bond Report | Oil News | Earnings Watch • Currencies | U.S. Economic Calendar

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Chicago PMI data for March and factory orders for February also are due for release.

Weekly oil inventories data also is due Wednesday.

Despite the lack of progress on employment, the S&P 500 this year is up over 5% heading into the final day of the first quarter as investors grow increasingly optimistic that the economy won't fall into a double-dip recession.

"Remember the Double Dip? This was a big concern last year when the economy was just starting to recover," said strategist Ed Yardeni in a note to clients. "Well, the economy is still recovering, and so are corporate profits."

Of companies in the spotlight, Honeywell /quotes/comstock/13*!hon/quotes/nls/hon (HON 44.95, +0.08, +0.18%) rose 1.8% in premarket action after upping its first-quarter outlook, citing stronger orders and sales as well as cost controls.

But SAIC /quotes/comstock/13*!sai/quotes/nls/sai (SAI 18.98, +0.07, +0.37%) , the contractor, slumped 5% in premarket trade as it warned on a slower-than-anticipated pace of new contract awards as well as tougher government contracting environment.

After the close, Research In Motion /quotes/comstock/15*!rimm/quotes/nls/rimm (RIMM 74.92, -0.78, -1.03%) and Micron Technology /quotes/comstock/15*!mu/quotes/nls/mu (MU 10.79, +0.16, +1.51%) , are due to report quarterly results.

On the M&A front, Peabody Energy /quotes/comstock/13*!btu/quotes/nls/btu (BTU 45.67, -0.40, -0.87%) had a $3 billion takeover bid rejected by Australia coal miner Macarthur Coal.

Overseas, Asian stocks ended slightly weaker, while Europe stocks rose in late-morning action.

Metals futures, notably platinum, made strong gains, and oil futures rose by $1 a barrel.

Steve Goldstein is MarketWatch's London bureau chief.


NYSE Arca Morning Update - 08:30:00 ET

NYSE Arca Morning Update for Wednesday, Mar 31, 2010 :

STOCKS TRADING ON NYSE Arca AT A PRICE 15% OR MORE AWAY FROM
THE PREVIOUS TRADE DAY'S CONSOLIDATED CLOSE PRICE (AS OF 08:30:00 ET)

Stock Tuesday's Close Current Price Pct Change Current NYSE ARCA Vol
ARQL $3.50 $5.87 67.7% 506,147


10 MOST ACTIVE STOCKS ON NYSE ARCA AS OF 08:30:00 ET

BASED ON DOLLARS TRADED: | BASED ON SHARES TRADED:
Stock $ Volume Price PctChg | Stock Share Vol Price PctChg
SPY $105760170 $116.99 ( 0.3%) | F 5,316,514 $12.80 ( 3.7%)
F $68,344,688 $12.80 ( 3.7%) | C 3,362,202 $4.08 ( 0.7%)
C $13,771,288 $4.08 ( 0.7%) | SPY 902,806 $116.99 ( 0.3%)
GLD $9,849,187 $108.96 0.9% | CTIC 535,408 $0.56 ( 7.6%)
AAPL $7,073,242 $234.88 ( 0.4%) | ARQL 506,147 $5.87 67.7%
USO $6,515,311 $40.36 1.1% | AIB 333,987 $3.41 4.3%
IWM $6,225,701 $68.15 ( 0.3%) | OXGN 287,769 $1.27 27.2%
BHP $5,703,290 $80.44 ( 0.9%) | BAC 195,338 $17.69 ( 0.3%)
QQQQ $5,518,261 $48.24 ( 0.3%) | IRE 187,701 $8.51 8.1%
TLT $4,041,032 $89.33 0.5% | USO 161,653 $40.36 1.1%


Price changes may be affected by symbol splits and dividends.

Consolidated close price is the last print (excluding prints with trade
conditions) prior to 4PM ET.

This information is also updated on our web page every morning at 8:35ET:
http://www.tradearca.com/data/volume/daily_update.asp

This material is for informational purposes only.
NYSE Euronext and its affiliates ("NYSE Arca") are not soliciting any action based upon it.
This material is not to be construed as an offer to buy or sell any security in any jurisdiction where such an offer or solicitation would be illegal.
Any opinions expressed in this material are NYSE Arca opinions only.
NYSE Arca undertakes no obligation to update any of the information contained in this material in light of new information or future events.
THIS MATERIAL IS PROVIDED BY NYSE ARCA "AS IS" AND WITHOUT WARRANTIES EXPRESS OR IMPLIED.
NYSE ARCA DISCLAIMS ALL WARRANTIES INCLUDING THE IMPLIED WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTIBILITY, TITLE, AND FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE AS TO THIS MATERIAL.
IN NO EVENT SHALL NYSE ARCA BE LIABLE FOR DIRECT, INDIRECT, INCIDENTAL, PUNITIVE, OR CONSEQUENTIAL DAMAGES OF ANY KIND WHATSOEVER (INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO, LOST PROFITS, TRADING LOSSES AND DAMAGES THAT MAY RESULT FROM THE USE
OF THIS MATERIAL, ANY DELAY OR INTERRUPTION OF SERVICE OR OMISSIONS OR INACCURACIES IN THE MATERIAL) WITH RESPECT TO THIS MATERIAL.

Copyright [2010] by NYSE Euronext. All rights reserved. Reproduction and redistribution prohibited without prior express consent.

Tuesday, March 30, 2010

Indications: U.S. stock futures inch up; Apple, Verizon in view

Stock Assault 2.0 - Artificial Intelligence Stock Market Software Alert Email Print

By Steve Goldstein, MarketWatch

LONDON (MarketWatch) -- U.S. stock futures inched higher Tuesday, with markets retaining a recent rally on hopes jobs data later this week will feed into a growing view of an improving economy.

S&P 500 futures rose 2.8 points to 1,171.60 and Nasdaq 100 futures added 6 points to 1,966.20. Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 19 points.

TODAY'S INTERNATIONAL MARKET STORIES

Global Dow

• MarketWatch Topics: Greece • Asia Markets | Europe Markets | LatAm Markets • Canadian Markets | Israel Stocks | London • U.S.: Market Snapshot | After Hours

Tools• Latin American/Canadian indexes • European indexes | Asian indexes

More on the Markets • Bond Report | Oil News | Earnings Watch • Currencies | U.S. Economic Calendar

/conga/story/misc/international.html 53366

U.S. stocks and commodities gained on Monday after a report of rising consumer spending, as the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite were each up between 0.4% and 0.6%.

Tuesday's economic calendar features the S&P/Case-Shiller on house prices in January and the Conference Board's gauge of consumer confidence in March, as markets position ahead of Friday's report on nonfarm payrolls.

The dollar was little moved vs. the euro or the yen, though the British pound /quotes/comstock/21o!x:sgbpusd (CUR_GBPUSD 1.5105, +0.0127, +0.8506%) rose back above the $1.50 level. See Currencies.

Apple /quotes/comstock/15*!aapl/quotes/nls/aapl (AAPL 232.39, +1.49, +0.65%) , AT&T /quotes/comstock/13*!t/quotes/nls/t (T 26.51, +0.27, +1.03%) and Verizon Communications /quotes/comstock/13*!vz/quotes/nls/vz (VZ 30.45, +0.08, +0.26%) will be in the spotlight after The Wall Street Journal reported that Apple is designing new iPhones, including a version that could work on Verizon's network.

Jonathan Schildkraut, an analyst at Jefferies & Co., said an introduction of a CDMA iPhone by Verizon would be a "meaningful catalyst" but said it would be better for Verizon were Android-based devices to gain traction, since iPhone subsidies are the highest in the industry and Apple doesn't share revenue from applications.

In premarket trade, Apple rose 2.2% and Verizon rose 2.9% while AT&T fell 1.7%.

Miners will be in the spotlight as Vale /quotes/comstock/13*!vale/quotes/nls/vale (VALE 32.00, +1.21, +3.93%) said Japanese steelmakers will pay 90% more for iron ore as the companies move to quarterly rather than annual prices.

LDK Solar /quotes/comstock/13*!ldk/quotes/nls/ldk (LDK 7.05, +0.04, +0.57%) fell over 4% after its quarterly loss was worse than analyst estimates.

Irish banks saw dramatic declines for a second day, with Allied Irish Banks /quotes/comstock/13*!aib/quotes/nls/aib (AIB 3.58, -0.87, -19.55%) losing a quarter of its value ahead of the Irish government's announcement on the stake they will take and the haircut they will demand for accepting risky loans.

But UBS /quotes/comstock/13*!ubs/quotes/nls/ubs (UBS 16.17, +0.70, +4.52%) rose after saying fixed-income revenue was nearly $2.3 billion during the first quarter. See UBS story.

Most Asian markets advanced, with the Nikkei 225 up 1% in Tokyo, while stocks in Europe made modest advances, with the Stoxx Europe 600 up 0.3%.

Steve Goldstein is MarketWatch's London bureau chief.


NYSE Arca Morning Update - 08:30:00 ET

NYSE Arca Morning Update for Tuesday, Mar 30, 2010 :

STOCKS TRADING ON NYSE Arca AT A PRICE 15% OR MORE AWAY FROM
THE PREVIOUS TRADE DAY'S CONSOLIDATED CLOSE PRICE (AS OF 08:30:00 ET)

Stock Monday's Close Current Price Pct Change Current NYSE ARCA Vol
GNVC $2.83 $0.90 (68.3%) 2,028,839
WEDC $5.46 $6.95 27.3% 90,400
BIOF $3.10 $3.77 21.7% 2,900
ALN $3.46 $4.05 16.9% 47,225
HPJ $6.47 $5.43 (16.1%) 1,150


10 MOST ACTIVE STOCKS ON NYSE ARCA AS OF 08:30:00 ET

BASED ON DOLLARS TRADED: | BASED ON SHARES TRADED:
Stock $ Volume Price PctChg | Stock Share Vol Price PctChg
AAPL $31,385,949 $237.20 2.1% | C 4,531,750 $4.16 ( 0.5%)
SPY $22,922,183 $117.52 0.2% | GNVC 2,028,839 $0.90 (68.3%)
C $18,920,271 $4.16 ( 0.5%) | VZ 277,854 $31.15 2.3%
VZ $8,687,823 $31.15 2.3% | CTIC 271,712 $0.63 4.2%
RIMM $8,339,502 $74.05 ( 2.2%) | T 200,767 $26.09 ( 1.6%)
T $5,225,300 $26.09 ( 1.6%) | SPY 195,012 $117.52 0.2%
GLD $3,357,247 $108.67 ( 0.1%) | AIB 189,198 $3.28 ( 8.7%)
BP $2,812,442 $56.90 0.0% | UBS 151,191 $16.28 0.5%
RTP $2,458,825 $240.01 2.1% | AAPL 132,305 $237.20 2.1%
UBS $2,454,994 $16.28 0.5% | RIMM 112,499 $74.05 ( 2.2%)


Price changes may be affected by symbol splits and dividends.

Consolidated close price is the last print (excluding prints with trade
conditions) prior to 4PM ET.

This information is also updated on our web page every morning at 8:35ET:
http://www.tradearca.com/data/volume/daily_update.asp

This material is for informational purposes only.
NYSE Euronext and its affiliates ("NYSE Arca") are not soliciting any action based upon it.
This material is not to be construed as an offer to buy or sell any security in any jurisdiction where such an offer or solicitation would be illegal.
Any opinions expressed in this material are NYSE Arca opinions only.
NYSE Arca undertakes no obligation to update any of the information contained in this material in light of new information or future events.
THIS MATERIAL IS PROVIDED BY NYSE ARCA "AS IS" AND WITHOUT WARRANTIES EXPRESS OR IMPLIED.
NYSE ARCA DISCLAIMS ALL WARRANTIES INCLUDING THE IMPLIED WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTIBILITY, TITLE, AND FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE AS TO THIS MATERIAL.
IN NO EVENT SHALL NYSE ARCA BE LIABLE FOR DIRECT, INDIRECT, INCIDENTAL, PUNITIVE, OR CONSEQUENTIAL DAMAGES OF ANY KIND WHATSOEVER (INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO, LOST PROFITS, TRADING LOSSES AND DAMAGES THAT MAY RESULT FROM THE USE
OF THIS MATERIAL, ANY DELAY OR INTERRUPTION OF SERVICE OR OMISSIONS OR INACCURACIES IN THE MATERIAL) WITH RESPECT TO THIS MATERIAL.

Copyright [2010] by NYSE Euronext. All rights reserved. Reproduction and redistribution prohibited without prior express consent.

Monday, March 29, 2010

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We use the state of the art software for both our CRM and credit dispute processes. This software allows our customers 24/7 access to their file so they can always see their progress. It also allows the client to have us give portal access to any lender they are currently working with. This creates a synergy for quickly getting updated information to any lender our client chooses. Paragon Credit Solutions strives to deliver best service and results that truly change our client’s financial lives.


Paragon Credit Services

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Castle Rock Reo - Foreclosure Reseller NY

It was a pleasure working with Jason from Castle Rock Reo and developing their website.

Here is a short blurb about the firm. If your looking to buy a foreclosed home give them a call and tell them the st0ckman sent you.

Castle Rock REO is proud to launch their new website www.CastleRockREO.com. Located in New York, Castle Rock REO is one of the nation’s leading resellers of foreclosed homes, with a focus on the Midwest and Southeast regions of the United States. Offering vacant homes that are ideal for local rehabbers, and occupied income producing homes for individuals looking for a steady cash flow, Castle Rock REO is able to provide heavily discounted foreclosed homes to the public. Our relationship with some of the nation’s leading lenders has enabled Castle Rock to achieve massive discounts from banks, allowing us to purchase homes for pennies on the dollar.
For those interested in purchasing homes for long term cash flow, Castle Rock REO is able to provide occupied houses yielding annual returns of between 16% and 18%. These returns are achieved without the typical hassles of land lording, making the investment extremely attractive. Typical purchase prices for these homes range between $20,000 and $30,000. For vacant unoccupied homes, typical prices range from $5,000 to $15,000. For more information please visit us by clicking here : Foreclosure Reseller NY


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Indications: U.S. stock futures rise on economic optimism

Stock Assault 2.0 - Artificial Intelligence Stock Market Software Alert Email Print

By Steve Goldstein & Kate Gibson, MarketWatch

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- U.S. stock futures rose Monday on optimism surrounding the global economy ahead of this week's release of nonfarm payrolls figures.

S&P 500 futures rose 4.2 points to 1,167.7 and Nasdaq 100 futures added 7 points to 1,958.75. Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 28 points to 10,826.

Stock futures lightly trimmed their advance the government reported personal income held unchanged in February, while spending rose 0.3%.

"The mix of data aren't too surprising and shouldn't impact the markets much," said analysts at Action Economics.

Though stocks were broadly flat on Friday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1% last week, the fourth week in a row the blue-chip index has gained and the sixth rise out of the last seven weeks.

As the first quarter winds down, metals futures rose across the board on Monday, with copper futures particularly strong, and both the euro /quotes/comstock/21o!x:seurusd (CUR_EURUSD 1.3444, -0.0026, -0.1930%) and the British pound /quotes/comstock/21o!x:sgbpusd (CUR_GBPUSD 1.4964, +0.0002, +0.0134%) up about 0.5% against the U.S. dollar.

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The Shanghai Composite climbed 2.1%, and Russian stocks held up well given the attack that killed dozens in Moscow, with the Russia RTS index climbing 1.4%. See Russia story.

The FTSE 100 edged up 0.2% in London.

Strategists at Societe Generale, in a note on asset allocation, advised "anything but cash" as global growth reaches 4% as the broker continues to prefer commodities and equities over government bonds. Employment creation and the end of the dollar crisis should support cheap equities in the U.S. and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite /quotes/comstock/10y!i:comp (COMP 2,395, -2.28, -0.10%) in particular, they said.

Greece, the country in Western Europe hardest hit over sovereign debt concerns, started marketing 5 billion euros ($6.7 billion) of seven-year debt. See story.

Standard & Poor's kept a negative view on the U.K.'s Triple-A credit rating. See story.

Of companies in the spotlight, Ford Motor Co. /quotes/comstock/13*!f/quotes/nls/f (F 13.86, +0.06, +0.43%) reached a deal over the weekend to sell Volvo Car to China's Zhejiang Geely for $1.8 billion. See Ford story.

Vodafone Group /quotes/comstock/15*!vod/quotes/nls/vod (VOD 21.95, -0.01, -0.05%) rose in London after The Sunday Telegraph said merger talks with Verizon Communications /quotes/comstock/13*!vz/quotes/nls/vz (VZ 30.37, +0.06, +0.20%) were discussed as one way to resolve a long-standing dispute over their jointly held mobile arm, Verizon Wireless, which isn't making dividend payments. See Verizon story.

Rio Tinto /quotes/comstock/13*!rtp/quotes/nls/rtp (RTP 231.11, +4.95, +2.19%) said it's terminating the employment of four who were convicted in Shanghai of accepting bribes and that it will continue to build its relationship with China. See Rio Tinto story.

Allied Irish Banks /quotes/comstock/13*!aib/quotes/nls/aib (AIB 4.45, -0.11, -2.41%) and the Bank of Ireland /quotes/comstock/13*!ire/quotes/nls/ire (IRE 7.44, -0.05, -0.67%) slumped in Dublin action on reports the government will increase their stakes in the lenders as well as the size of the discount the lenders will have to accept for offloading risky assets. See Ireland story.

Steve Goldstein is MarketWatch's London bureau chief. Kate Gibson is a reporter for MarketWatch, based in New York.


NYSE Arca Morning Update - 08:30:00 ET

NYSE Arca Morning Update for Monday, Mar 29, 2010 :

STOCKS TRADING ON NYSE Arca AT A PRICE 15% OR MORE AWAY FROM
THE PREVIOUS TRADE DAY'S CONSOLIDATED CLOSE PRICE (AS OF 08:30:00 ET)

Stock Friday's Close Current Price Pct Change Current NYSE ARCA Vol
BELM $5.38 $6.90 28.3% 1,278,825
BWY $17.36 $20.24 16.6% 10,925


10 MOST ACTIVE STOCKS ON NYSE ARCA AS OF 08:30:00 ET

BASED ON DOLLARS TRADED: | BASED ON SHARES TRADED:
Stock $ Volume Price PctChg | Stock Share Vol Price PctChg
SPY $32,942,356 $117.30 0.6% | C 5,305,029 $4.40 2.0%
C $23,351,585 $4.40 2.0% | BELM 1,278,825 $6.90 28.3%
AAPL $14,721,376 $233.42 1.1% | F 976,691 $13.78 ( 0.6%)
F $13,549,298 $13.78 ( 0.6%) | AIB 447,146 $3.87 (12.8%)
BELM $8,832,066 $6.90 28.3% | SPY 280,758 $117.30 0.6%
GLD $4,560,981 $109.00 0.4% | BAC 231,436 $18.12 1.2%
BAC $4,198,144 $18.12 1.2% | UNG 204,949 $7.00 ( 0.4%)
BHP $4,144,551 $80.21 2.1% | CTIC 173,700 $0.66 3.2%
IWM $2,506,449 $68.27 0.7% | PEIX 171,652 $1.78 ( 8.9%)
QQQQ $2,476,143 $48.25 0.5% | ABIO 151,029 $8.37 1.9%


Price changes may be affected by symbol splits and dividends.

Consolidated close price is the last print (excluding prints with trade
conditions) prior to 4PM ET.

This information is also updated on our web page every morning at 8:35ET:
http://www.tradearca.com/data/volume/daily_update.asp

This material is for informational purposes only.
NYSE Euronext and its affiliates ("NYSE Arca") are not soliciting any action based upon it.
This material is not to be construed as an offer to buy or sell any security in any jurisdiction where such an offer or solicitation would be illegal.
Any opinions expressed in this material are NYSE Arca opinions only.
NYSE Arca undertakes no obligation to update any of the information contained in this material in light of new information or future events.
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OF THIS MATERIAL, ANY DELAY OR INTERRUPTION OF SERVICE OR OMISSIONS OR INACCURACIES IN THE MATERIAL) WITH RESPECT TO THIS MATERIAL.

Copyright [2010] by NYSE Euronext. All rights reserved. Reproduction and redistribution prohibited without prior express consent.

Saturday, March 27, 2010

Credit Crisis, Outrage, Far From Over

Stock Assault 2.0 - Artificial Intelligence Stock Market Software

The re-nomination of Ben Bernanke, as Chairman of the Federal Reserve, has to be one of the ultimate political insults, particularly coming from Republicans, as did his predecessor, Alan Greenspan, both have taken America and the world down the sewer. Ben Bernanke saved Wall Street, the banks, insurance companies and a myriad of other Illuminist firms.

This is the same Ben who refused to release records to uncover where $2 trillion had gone in the loan program that followed the collapse of Lehman Brothers. This is an appellate defeat for the Fed. We would expect they will next appeal to the Supreme Court. This is important to the Fed, because a loss would not only expose which institutions were insolvent, US and foreign, but it would expose what collateral was accepted for these so-called loans, and have they been paid back?

The Fed and American and foreign bankers gambled and lost, so it was up to Ameri can taxpayers to bail them out. Needless to say, these actions were outrageous. The Fed not only had no authority to do what they did, but they did, but they also suborned perjury. We wonder how the Appeals Court missed that? The Fed has buried our country in debt, allowed unbelievable leverage and absolutely refuses to tell us what they are up too. Except for a few in Senate and House hearings, questioning is a total farce. The Fed has done as it pleases for 97 years and that has to stop. We cannot allow Ben Bernanke to lie before Congress and get away with it either. We also cannot allow any corporation or financial institution to keep two sets of books and not mark their investment to market.

The financial world is a very small world and everyone knew what was going on at Lehman, just as they knew what Berne Madoff was up too. As usual a conspiracy of silence prevailed in order to allow the wholesale fleecing of the American public to continue unabated . In Wall Street and banking there is still honor among thieves. The Fed knew what was going on at Lehman and let it continue. That is how Mr. Bernanke purgered himself before Congress. Merrill Lynch had already warned the SEC and Fed as to what was actually going on at Lehman. Lehman committed fraud and its officers have thus far gotten away with it. Where is the SEC with civil charges and where is our Justice Department? They both only make selective prosecutions, most of which are based upon politics or the connections of the players. The only time they go after insiders is when they are forced too, like in the recent fine against Berkshire Hathaway, Warren Buffett’s firm, for accounting fraud of $200 million. The fine was $100 million, so as you can see crime pays. What is worse is that other firms are doing the same thing. This is all part of the mantra that no major financial firm should be allowed to fail. They are too big to fail.

The big bad secret is that if banks and other financial companies reported their true financial positions they’d be out of business â€" insolvent. The Fed and the SEC are certainly well aware of these problems, but the game goes on. The fraud is intentional and conscience. They know there are two sets of books, that MBS on their books are virtually worthless, they just bought $1.1 trillion worth of the toxic waste and they are well aware that the shadow inventory on their books is at best worth $0.30 on the dollar. In fact, everyone within the beltway knows it, just like seven years ago they all knew Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were broke. As you can see, there is no law; it is only what these people want it to be. Faithfully all regulators and our elected representatives look the other way. They allow corruption to flourish. One thing that can be guaranteed is that if you report any of these frauds nothing is liable to happen. Today that is the American way â€" crime pays.

As we have said before the exposure of the problems in Greece, those of all the PIIGS and in the US, California, Arizona, Pennsylvania, New Jersey and New York, open a whole new phase of the debt crisis. The world is in a sovereign debt crisis. In Europe and in the US there are talks regarding a reduction in leverage in currency, which will only cause a liquidity crisis. A rise in interest rates will only compound the problem.

In addition we believe mortgage debt, both commercial and residential, will be sucked into the vortex adding to the woes. This is a replay of what occurred in the 1930s in the debt markets. Do not forget the bond market is 10 times bigger than the stock market and if something has to be sacrificed it will be the stocks, not the bonds. The replay will find stocks falling first, followed by bonds. The bond problem is already very visible; 19 nations have had their credit ratings cut and the US and UK and others will soon foll ow. That is why we continue to say that the only safe haven is in gold and silver related assets. As we have said previously the only way to handle the problem is for nations to meet, have a multilateral official devaluation and debt default settlement. That will be followed by a deflationary depression, which will be accompanied by another worldwide war.

The debt load, particularly in advanced economies, is overextended and unsustainable at more than 400% of GDP in the US alone. That is 25% higher than US debt was in the 1930s. Those who do believe debt will be settled and currencies devalued, also know that recovery from that debt will take 20 or more years.

At the center of this greed and corruption are derivatives and securitization, which are simply a Ponzi scheme form of finance. These instruments were central to bringing down AIG and GM. The lenders, the large banks, brokerage houses, investment banks and insurance companies wro te these financial products, most of which are and were uncollateralized. As a result of this unethical disaster the American taxpayer was put firmly on the hook to repay this debt and to bail out the lenders. In addition, as you have been recently informed, these products were responsible in part for Greece’s current problems. What Goldman Sachs did was transform government debt into derivatives, which were insured by CDSs. In time the euro zone will break up as a result of this and other factors. If England were to withdraw from the EU that could as well break up the European Union. Speculators have been purchasing Greek CDSs, anticipating debt default and as a result the euro has plunged. All of this is the result of turning world markets into a casino.

As you can see the problems are not going away and they won’t disappear until the system is purged. More than $3 trillion has been poured into GM, AIG, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and Wall Street bank s and brokerage houses by American taxpayers via the Fed and the Treasury. As a result the biggest violators have become even bigger, which was the intention from the beginning. As an example, JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, Citigroup and Goldman Sachs hold almost 40% of all bank deposits. The credit crisis and the debt crisis are far from over. The desk chairs have just been rearranged. Not only will seven million more people lose their homes this year creating a 3-year home inventory for sale, but also lenders will get hit with commercial real estate they cannot possibly finance. We see another minimum of four more years of defaults both in the US and Europe. Taxpayers cannot save the system indefinitely, especially when the players that caused all this are back leveraging and speculating again.

We are facing a commercial debt crisis that no one expects. We are going to see hundreds of US banks fail this year, which the FDIC does not ha ve the funds to cover. This year or next we are facing a sovereign debt crisis in the US, Europe and elsewhere. We are looking at tariffs on goods and services next year. All derivatives should be outlawed except on transparent exchanges and present positions should all be unwound. Europe is already moving ahead on this matter and hopefully an international conclusion can be reached. In addition Glass Steagall should be reinstated and the Fed’s job be turned back to the Treasury Department.

Bearing out what we discussed earlier there is little talk of all G-7 members soon reaching more than 100% of GDP in public debt. As a result every one of these 7 countries have serious problems. In addition they are still expanding M3 or M4. Power and cash consumption shifts more and more toward governments. Banks have cut back lending by some 20%. They are holding government paper probably at the behest of government. The foreign treasury buying could very well be the Fed funding the purchases. Then the carry trade and hedge funds do their part as well. This could be a position of diminishing returns if interest rates rise in the real market, which we believe they will. Some 30 major nations have the same problem the US has and that is funding their own debt, as well as America’s. Again, we have long believed that Treasury funding from the UK, Caymans and other sources was merely a front for Fed purchase of Treasuries. That in part is what the swap agreements are all about. This 40% increase in US monetary base normally would cause inflation, perhaps even hyperinflation, but the affect of 22-1/8% unemployment, low wages and a strong deflationary undertow has held inflation at an official 2-1/2% to 3%, or a real 7-1/2%. We see money and credit continuing to grow at 16% although the Fed has been drawing liquidity from the system. Normally we’d say that the US would emulate Japan’s 20 years of deflationary depression, but this time it is different. Japan wasn’t carrying the debt load the US is today. Japan began off a lower center. The luxury of 20 years of sideways movement that Japan experienced is not available to the US, because of their massive sovereign debt that grows by the minute.

As we pointed out previously foreign holdings of dollars by other central banks has fallen from 64.5% of assets to 60.5%. this has been caused by internal funding needs and flight from the dollar. This fall in dollar reserves sooner of later will force the Fed to raise rates to draw in more dollars to fund US debt. These exercises will also crowd out other corporate borrowers, again putting upward pressure on interest rates. Somewhere along the chain problems will arise and it will snap. We believe that event will be when multilateral official devaluation and debt defaults take place and those events are not far away.

We are at a juncture where governments cannot really help like they could previously and in order to survive they will have to take care of themselves. For the moment they have neutralized a bankrupt banking system by creating enough liquidity to offset deflation. As demands grow the need for liquidity grows just to keep the insolvent system afloat. This approach is funding sovereign debt, but it is not allowing loans to small- and medium- sized businesses and individuals. The system’s worst days lie ahead. Take advantage of the interlude, it will be short lived.

The Mortgage Bankers Association reports its index, which shows purchase and refinance applications, saw the latest week in March loan application volume decrease 4.2%. The Purchase Index component rose 2.7%. The Refinance Index fell 7.1% week-on-week. The Purchase Index fell 15% year-on-year. These numbers were called an improvement by the mainline controlled media, if you can believe that.

JPMorgan Chase is cutting a deal with y our government for a $1.4 billion tax refund. This is a benefit for taking over Washington Mutual. JPM paid only $1.9 billion for Wamu. If the tax break is allowed they have 73.6% of the purchase price back. JPM wants to score $10’s of billions for a $500 million investment. The public gets screwed again and the criminals on Wall Street win.


Orders for long-lasting goods rose in February for a third month, while inventories and backlogs climbed by the most in more than a year, indicating the manufacturing rebound will keep propelling the U.S. recovery.

The 0.5 percent increase in bookings for durable goods was in line with the median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News and followed a 3.9 percent gain the prior month, the Commerce Department said today in Washington. Excluding transportation equipment, orders advanced 0.9 percent, more than anticipated.

The U.S. lost 2.4 million jobs to China between 2001 and 2008, according to a new report issued Tuesday.

Texas and California were the hardest hit but every state has experienced job losses because of increased trade from China, according to the report from the left-leaning Economic Policy Institute.

The report blamed high job losses in computers, electronic equipment and parts industries, which are concentrated in those two states.

North Carolina was also hit hard according to the report. That state has seen textile, furniture and other small manufacturing industries shrink as companies faced competition from lower-priced Chinese goods.

While the report said low labor costs in China are a big reason for the trade deficit, it also blamed China’s currency manipulati on.

China pegs its currency to the U.S. dollar so that it rises and falls with fluxuations in the dollar’s value. Critics say this means China’s currency is undervalued, and that it lowers the price of Chinese exports while making U.S. exports to China more expensive.

Sens. Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) and Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) have introduced legislation to make it easier for companies to petition the government for tariffs on Chinese products because of currency manipulation.

The two senators are expected to hold a press call Tuesday afternoon on the report.

The report said China has purchased U.S. Treasury bills and other securities to keep the Chinese currency pegged to the U.S. dollar.

China has $2.4 trillion in currency reserves, much of which is thought to be in U.S. dollars.

China’s purchases of U.S. Treasury bills has helped the U.S. fi nance its debt without raising interest rates, but this has also made Chinese exports to the U.S. less expensive.

Sales of new homes in the U.S. fell slightly in February - the fourth straight monthly drop - to yet another record low. New-home sales slipped 2.2% to an annual pace of 308,000, seasonally adjusted, which is the lowest rate since the government began tracking the data in 1963, according to the Commerce Department. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch forecast annualized sales of 318,000. Sales for January were revised to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 315,000, up from 309,000 as previously reported. The median price of a new home sold shot up 6.1% to $220,500 in February from January's revised level of $207,900.

Washington homeowners today sued Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) claiming the lending giant is intentionally withholding government funds intended to save homeowners from foreclosure.

The cas e, filed in U.S. District Court, claims that Bank of America systematically slows or thwarts Washington homeowners’ access to Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) funds by ignoring homeowners’ requests to make reasonable mortgage adjustments or other alternative solutions that would prevent homes from being foreclosed.

“We intend to show that Bank of America is acting contrary to the intent and spirit of the TARP program, and is doing so out of financial self interest,” said Steve Berman, managing partner of Hagens Berman Sobol Shapiro.

Bank of America accepted $25 billion in government bailout money financed by taxpayer dollars earmarked to help struggling homeowners avoid foreclosure. One in eight mortgages in the United State is currently in foreclosure or default.

Bank of America, like other TARP-funded financial institutions, is obligated to offer alternatives to foreclosure and permanently reduce mo rtgage payments for eligible borrowers struck by financial hardship but, according to the lawsuit, hasn’t lived up to its obligation.

According to the U.S. Treasury Department, Bank of America services more than 1 million mortgages that qualify for financial relief, but have granted only 12,761 of them permanent modification.

The big news in the Existing Home Sales report is inventories jumped at the fastest rate in 20 years â€" to 8.6 months from 7.8 months. As we warned, just like in the mid-00s, government stimulus schemes cannibalized future sales for expediency.

The median home price declined 1.8% y/y; but the surge in inventory and the termination of the first-time home buyers’ tax credit augurs for a steeper decline in prices.

 

A new national telephone poll conducted by Opinion Dynamics Corp. for Fox News concludes:

Most American voters believe it’s possible the nation’s economy could collapse, and majorities don’t think elected officials in Washington have ideas for fixing it.

The latest Fox News poll finds that 79 percent of voters think it’s possible the economy could collapse, including large majorities of Democrats (72 percent), Republicans (84 percent) and independents (80 percent).

Unfortunately, it already has, although Bernanke, Summers and Geithner are still trying to hide that fact.

One more time, from the top ...

Consumer spending accounts for the lion's share of the economic activity. The economy cannot recover until trust is restored. Trust won't be restored until the fraud actually stops, the criminals are prosecuted, and the fox is fired from his role as chicken coop guard.

Bill Gross: As a November IMF staff position note aptly pointed out, high fiscal deficits and higher outstanding debt lead to higher real interest rates and ultimately higher inflation, both trends which are bond market unfriendly. In the U.S. in addition to the 10% of GDP deficits and a growing stock of outstanding debt, an investor must be concerned with future unfunded entitlement commitments, which portfolio managers almost always neglect, viewing them as so far off in the future that they don’t matter. Yet should it concern an inv estor in 30-year Treasuries that the Congressional Budget Office estimates that the present value of unfunded future social insurance expenditures (Social Security and Medicare primarily) was $46 trillion as of 2009, a sum four times its current outstanding debt? Of course it should, and that may be a primary reason why 30-year bonds yield 4.6% whereas 2-year debt with the same guarantee yields less than 1%.

The trend promises to get worse, not better. The imminent passage of health care reform represents a continuing litany of entitlement legislation that will add, not subtract, to future deficits and unfunded liabilities

WSJ editorial: U.S. cities, states and the feds have issued more than $2.5 trillion of new debt since 2008, with another nearly $2 trillion scheduled in 2010.

States and cities face $1 trillion to $2 trillion of additional unfunded liabilities in opulent state employee pension and health-care plans. Even as states can't maintain their roads and bridges, politicians have diverted hundreds of billions in tax money to finance salary and pension increases for government workers. Build American Bonds subsidize states and cities so they can avoid a day of reckoning over those benefits.

NYC Mayor Says If Albany Slices City Aid, As Many As 19,000 Will Be Laid Off; 3,100 Less Cops, 1,000 Less Firefighters; Layoffs May Be Worst In Decades; Ball In State Government's Court.

4-Day School Weeks Might Be Coming In Illinois - State House Has Passed Bill Allowing ScDistricts To Set Up Shorter Weeks; Mayor Daley Has Doubts.

Initial jobless claims fell to the lowest level in six weeks as the rebound in the U.S. economy encourages companies to make fewer cuts in payrolls.

First-time jobless applications declined 14,000 in the week ended March 20 to 442,000, lower than anticipated, Labor Department figures showed today in Washington. The number of people receiving unemployment insurance decreased, and those getting extended benefits also fell.

Nouriel Roubini, the New York University economist who predicted the financial crisis, said U.S. lawmakers may spark a trade war by labeling China as a “currency manipulator.”

“With unemployment at 10 percent and more than 130 Congress people saying we should brand China as a manipulator, the probability the U.S. is going to do that in its mid-April report is significant, I would say at least 50 percent,” Roubini told Bloomberg Television today in Cernobbio, Italy. “That could lead to a trade war, absolutely.”

China pegged the yuan to the dollar in July 2008 to help its exporters weather a global economic slump and after the currency appreciated 21 percent since 2005. International pressure on China to allow the currency to rise has intensified since Premier Wen Jiabao said on March 14 that the yuan isn’t undervalued.

“Under a floating exchange rate the yuan will appreciate, prima facie evidence that the yuan is undervalued,” Roubini said. “It is in the interest of China to let the currency appreciate.”

Chinese central bank advisor Fan Gang said China “may resume a managed float of its exchange rate” if the global economy stabilizes and uncertainty around the economic outlook diminishes. Yuan forwards strengthened against the dollar after his comments were published today in the Melbourne-based Age newspaper.

As Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was in Washington this week absorbing the full wrath of the Obama administration, the Pentagon and Israel's defense establishment were in the process of sealing a large arms deal.

According to the deal, Israel will purchase three new Hercules C-130J airplanes. The deal for the three aircrafts, designed by Lockheed Martin, is worth roughly a quarter billion dollars. Each aircraft costs $70 million.

The aircraft s were manufactured specifically for Israeli needs, and include a large number of systems produced by Israel's defense industry.

The deal will be covered by American foreign assistance funds. The Pentagon will issue a formal announcement on the matter on Thursday evening.

America and Israel have still not reached an agreement regarding the purchase of the Lockheed F-35 war plane. It is still not clear when that deal, which is estimated to be worth more than $3 billion, will finally be sealed and carried out.

If that deal is signed in the near future, Israel will likely receive its first F-35 in 2014.

 




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Friday, March 26, 2010

Indications: Stock futures edge higher after GDP data

Stock Assault 2.0 - Artificial Intelligence Stock Market Software Alert Email Print

By Simon Kennedy & Kate Gibson, MarketWatch

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- U.S. stock futures pointed higher Friday as investors cast their eyes over Oracle Corp.'s earnings and considered the latest readings on the country's economic growth.

TODAY'S INTERNATIONAL MARKET STORIES

Global Dow

• MarketWatch Topics: Greece • Asia Markets | Europe Markets | LatAm Markets • Canadian Markets | Israel Stocks | London • U.S.: Market Snapshot | After Hours

Tools• Latin American/Canadian indexes • European indexes | Asian indexes

More on the Markets • Bond Report | Oil News | Earnings Watch • Currencies | U.S. Economic Calendar

/conga/story/misc/international.html 53366

Stock futures lightly pared gains after the Commerce Department reported real gross domestic product increased at a 5.6% pace in the final quarter of 2009.

Futures for the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 22 points. S&P 500 futures rose 3 points to 1,165.7 and Nasdaq 100 futures gained 5.25 points to 1,954.75.

U.S. markets ended mixed Thursday after an early rally evaporated as a strengthening dollar sapped gains in commodities and related shares, and further weak demand Treasury notes also weighed. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed up around 5 points, while the S&P 500 fell 1.99 points and the Nasdaq Composite declined 1.35 points.

Due out after Friday's open are figures on consumer sentiment for March from the University of Michigan.

Joseph LaVorgna, chief U.S. economist at Deutsche Bank, said sentiment likely will lag other indicators of economic improvement until the labor market improves.

"A sustained improvement in household attitudes generally does not occur until the unemployment rate enters a noticeable downtrend -- something we expect to become more apparent over the next couple of months," he said in a note to clients.

The dollar lost ground against the euro Friday, reversing gains from the previous session when it hit a ten-month high against the European currency. That move came after euro-zone nations announced a plan to support debt-burdened Greece, if needed, through bilateral loans and the International Monetary Fund.

The euro /quotes/comstock/21o!x:seurusd (CUR_EURUSD 1.3398, +0.0121, +0.9114%) was recently up 0.8% at $1.337.

In energy trading, oil future stepped higher, with the May-dated light crude contract gaining 57 cents to stand at $81.09 a barrel in trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Among companies in Friday's focus, Oracle /quotes/comstock/15*!orcl/quotes/nls/orcl (ORCL 25.64, -0.40, -1.54%) reported a dip in fiscal third-quarter profit to $1.2 billion. But the company also said late Thursday that sales rose 17% as it benefited from a pick-up in spending on business software as well as contributions from recently acquired Sun Microsystems Inc. See story on Oracle's earnings.

Also after Thursday's close, Accenture /quotes/comstock/13*!acn/quotes/nls/acn (ACN 42.21, +0.69, +1.66%) said net income for its fiscal second quarter fell to $462 million from $502 million as revenue dipped 2% to $5.18 billion.

Meanwhile, the New York Post reported that RadioShack Corp. /quotes/comstock/13*!rsh/quotes/nls/rsh (RSH 23.56, +1.76, +8.07%) is considering a sale of the company that could fetch more than $3 billion. One potential buyer might be Best Buy /quotes/comstock/13*!bby/quotes/nls/bby (BBY 43.24, +0.58, +1.36%) , according to the report.

News Corp. /quotes/comstock/15*!nws/quotes/nls/nws (NWS 17.14, +0.10, +0.59%) /quotes/comstock/15*!nwsa/quotes/nls/nwsa (NWSA 14.52, +0.09, +0.59%) said it will begin charging for the Web sites of British newspapers The Times and The Sunday Times, starting in June. Both sites will be available for one pound ($1.48) a day, or two pounds a week. News Corp. also owns MarketWatch, the publisher of this report.

European markets were subdued as the trading week drew to a close, with Germany's DAX 30 Index dipping 0.2%, while many Asian markets posted strong gains overnight, with Japan's Nikkei 225 Average jumping 1.5%.

Greek banks rallied after the aid package as well as a move by the European Central Bank to ease collateral rules.

Simon Kennedy is the City correspondent for MarketWatch in London. Kate Gibson is a reporter for MarketWatch, based in New York.


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