Fed Lending to Banks Tops Pre-1933 Bank Holiday
Fed Lending to Banks Tops Pre-1933 Bank Holiday • Inflationary Recession Continues to Intensify • Weak Economy Does Not Mean Lower Gold Prices • Perils of Trying to Mimic Bad Government Data • But for systemic intervention and manipulations by the Federal Reserve, it appears we might be contemplating a collapsed U.S. banking system and a looming deflationary great depression that could have dwarfed the bad times of the 1930s. Such is the good news. The bad news is that with those same systemic interventions, the Fed is locking in a hyperinflationary great depression in the decade ahead, with the turmoil possibly breaking by 2010 or earlier.
February 5th, 2008
MarketWatch.com - Pre-Market Indications
Monday, February 11, 2008
Fed Lending to Banks Tops Pre-1933 Bank Holiday
Moussa Bakir may be re-arrested
Kerviel E-Mails May Tie Trader to Deals, Lawyers Say (Update1)
By Heather Smith
Feb. 11 (Bloomberg) -- Jerome Kerviel and futures trader Moussa Bakir exchanged messages that show they may have collaborated on bets that led to a record 4.9 billion-euro ($7.2 billion) trading loss at Societe Generale SA, lawyers said.
``It may be in the days to come that Moussa winds up being in the same situation'' as Kerviel, Christopher Mesnooh, a Paris-based lawyer at Hughes Hubbard & Reed, said today. The question is whether Bakir was ``a 50-50 accomplice or something less,'' he said.
Bakir, 32, a trader at Societe Generale's futures brokerage, Fimat, was held for questioning by the financial police for 48 hours before he was released on Feb. 9 as a ``material witness.'' That came after a Paris court ordered Kerviel into custody on Feb. 8 to prevent the tampering of evidence in the probe on how he built a 50 billion-euro position backed by fake hedges. His lawyer plans to appeal the detention.
Message exchanges between the men provided to investigators by Societe Generale, France's second-largest bank, indicate they sought to keep Kerviel's trades a secret. Kerviel passed his trades through Fimat, which merged last month with Credit Agricole SA's futures brokerage to form a new entity, Newedge.
for a full listing of my blog posts on rogue trader Moussa Bakir click here:
for a listing of my posts for jerome kerviel click here:
Many Believe US Already in a Recession - Business on The Huffington Post
Empty homes and for-sale signs clutter neighborhoods. You've lost your job or know someone who has. Your paycheck and nest egg are taking a hit.
Could the country be in recession?
Sixty-one percent of the public believes the economy is now suffering through its first recession since 2001, according to an Associated Press-Ipsos poll.
Acinetobacter baumannii has been found in military hospitals in Germany, the Washington, D.C., area and Texas -- the primary destinations of wounded service members from the two war zones. And it has now spread to civilians, according to the report.
"The outbreak began traveling with patients or nonpatients from Iraq all the way back to Walter Reed," said Dr. Rox Anderson at Harvard Medical School.
Dr. Timothy Endy, a retired Army colonel now teaching infectious disease medicine at the Upstate Medical University of the State University of New York, said the outbreak might be the largest of its kind to spread through hospitals in history.
U.S. stock futures were steady this morning, as investors brace themselves for economically revealing data later this week. Overseas markets were suffering in the wake of this weekend's Group of Seven (G7) meeting, which revealed possibly worse-than-expected subprime-related losses to come, while crude futures inched higher after threats from the Venezuelan government. Stocks in focus this morning include Yahoo!, Microsoft, Time Warner, Motorola, Nortel Networks, and Hasbro...
Taking a look around the Street, oil futures were last seen up 8 cents at $91.85 a barrel, as Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez this weekend threatened to cease oil sales to the U.S. The South American politician stated that, if Exxon Mobil ( XOM: sentiment, chart, options) wins a court dispute freezing the Venezuelan government's assets, crude supplies would be cut off to the U.S.
The big news of the weekend comes from the now-notorious possible buyout of Yahoo! (YHOO: sentiment, chart, options) by Microsoft (MSFT: sentiment, chart, options) . The former of the companies is expected to reject the latter of the pair's $44.6-billion takeover offer. Microsoft, however, is expected to take its proposition directly to YHOO shareholders. In related news, London's The Times reported that Yahoo may explore a merger with Time Warner's (TWX: sentiment, chart, options) AOL unit.
Speaking of mergers and acquisitions, Motorola (MOT: sentiment, chart, options) is reportedly in talks with Nortel Networks (NT: sentiment, chart, options) . The companies, according to The Wall Street Journal, are thinking of merging their wireless-infrastructure arms. A merger of the powerful communications companies could reportedly create a firm with potential for $10 billion in annual sales.
In earnings news, toy maker Hasbro (HAS: sentiment, chart, options) this morning reported that fourth-quarter net income rose 24% to $133.7 million, or 84 cents a share, from $108.3 million, or 62 cents a share, a year ago. Revenue increased 16% to $1.3 billion, compared to $1.12 billion a year earlier. Analysts were expecting earnings of 81 cents a share on revenue of $1.22 billion.
Want an illustration of why traders are nervous about how stable earnings forecasts are? New York State Governor Eliot Spitzer is lowering projections for tax revenue by $384 million, only three weeks after presenting his budget! It's a drop in the bucket compared to the $124 billion budget, but it's a sign of how fast economic forecasts are changing.
Europe flat, but Asia showing some weakness: India's Bombay Sensitive Index was down 4.8 percent (lowest close since September); one of the largest IPOs of the year, Reliance Power, which went public in a $3 billion offering in January, was down 14 percent as the formerly hot IPO market there appears to be cooling off. Two large IPOs were pulled last week. Sterlite Industries, an Indian company which trades here, is down 5 percent pre-open.
Hong Kong down 3.7 percent, Korea down 3.3 percent as well.
Commodities advancing again this morning after moving up aggressively last week; the CRB Index, a basked of commodities, hit an historic high on Friday. Platinum and silver at new highs.
At the G7 meeting in Tokyo over the weekend, there were warnings that global markets could lapse into turmoil again, and participants vowed they would take "suitable measures to calm the financial markets" if they need to, according to EuroGroup Charmin Jean-Claude Juncker.
The IMF noted that economic slowdown in the U.S. could last for some time. The IMF lowered its 2008 global growth forecast last month to 4.1 percent from 4.8 percent.
Markets are hopeful that some kind of bailout of the bond insurers can be done this week--either an increase in the lines of credit or more equity capital. Ambac
In stock news:
1) Hasbro up 6 percent pre-open as they beat earnings and revenue expectations on strong sales of their Transformer toy line. Last week they increased their dividend 25 percent and authorized an additional $500 m in buybacks.
2) Korean handset maker LG Electronics says it has no interest in buying Motorola's handset business.
3) Loew's reported earnings well below expectations; the main problem seems to have been a 50 percent decline in profits at CNA, one of the largest commercial insurers in the country. CNA had investment losses tied to their subprime exposure.
4) SocGen announced they were set for a rights offering at a 39 percent discount to its stock price. They also revealed about $900 million of previously undisclosed write-downs.
NYSE Arca Morning Update for Friday, Feb 8, 2008 :
Stocks trading on NYSE Arca at a price more than 15% away from the previous trade day's consolidated close price. (As of 08:30:00 ET)
|Thursday's Close||Current Price||Pct Chng||Current NYSE Arca Vol|
10 Most Active stocks on NYSE Arca as of 08:30:00 ET
|Based on Dollar Volume:||Based on Share Volume:|
These are not the only analyst calls affecting stocks this morning, but these are the top calls that 247WallSt.com is focusing on:
- American Express (NYSE: AXP) downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at KBW.
- BT Group (NYSE: BT) downgraded to Underperform at Credit Suisse.
- Darden Restaurants (NYSE: DRI) initiated as Outperform at RBC.
- First Merit (NASDAQ: FMER) downgraded to Underperform at Oppenheimer.
- GlaxoSmithKline (NYSE: GSK) raised to Buy from Neutral at UBS.
- Independent Bank (NASDAQ: IBCP) downgraded to Underperform at Oppenheimer.
- Level 3 Communications (NASDAQ: LVLT) downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Credit Suisse.
- Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) downgraded to Sector Perform from Outperform at RBC.
- Napster (NASDAQ: NAPS) raised to Outperform at Bear Stearns.
- SanDisk (NASDAQ: SNDK) initiated as Sell at Caris.
Markets in Europe were down slightly at 6.45 AM New York time.
The FTSE was off 4% to 5,760. BP (NYSE: BP) was up 1% to 552.5. GlaxoSmithKline (NYSE: GSK) was up 2.5% to 1,097.
The DAXX was down .2% to 6,755. Commerzbank was down 2.9% to 19.27. SAP (NYSE: SAP) was off .5% to 32.62.
The CAC 40 fell .6% to 4,683. Alcatel-Lucent (NYSE: ALU) fell 2.4% to 4.04. Societe Generale fell 3.2% to 75.26